# Exit Velocity

> Model your TSLA and SPCX shares at any price target: value, gain, ROI, after-tax take-home, buy-the-dip math and a clearly hypothetical merger-ratio scenario. Free, private, runs in your browser.

Exit Velocity is an educational calculator. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it is not affiliated with Tesla, Inc. or Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Scenarios are hypothetical; no Tesla–SpaceX merger has been announced.

## Calculators
- [Home calculator](https://www.exitvelocity.app/): TSLA + SPCX holdings, price targets, after-tax, merger scenario, buy-the-dip, share card.
- [Tesla–SpaceX merger calculator](https://www.exitvelocity.app/tesla-spacex-merger-calculator): hypothetical exchange-ratio math; explains why a ~0.7 market-cap ratio is not 0.7 SPCX shares per TSLA share.
- [TSLA position calculator](https://www.exitvelocity.app/tsla-position-calculator)
- [SPCX calculator](https://www.exitvelocity.app/spcx-calculator)
- [FAQ](https://www.exitvelocity.app/faq)

## Formulas
- Value = shares × price; Gain = value − shares × average cost; ROI = gain ÷ invested.
- Reality Mode after-tax = value − 0.238 × max(gain, 0) (20% federal LTCG + 3.8% NIIT).
- Exchange ratio at parity = TSLA price ÷ SPCX price; with premium p: × (1 + p).
- Exchange ratio from market-cap ratio M = M × (SpaceX shares outstanding ÷ Tesla shares outstanding).

## Upcoming Tesla catalysts (status in brackets)
- 2026-10-21T17:30:00-04:00 — Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call [confirmed] https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-third-quarter-2026-production-deliveries-and-deployments
- 2026-12-06T12:00:00-05:00 — 2026 annual shareholder meeting [tentative] https://ir.tesla.com/
- 2027-01-02T09:00:00-05:00 — Q4 2026 production & deliveries report [tentative] https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
- 2027-01-27T17:30:00-05:00 — Tesla Q4 2026 earnings call [tentative] https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure

## FAQ
### Has Tesla announced a merger with SpaceX?
No. As of October 2026 there is no announced deal, filing, or agreed exchange ratio. Elon Musk has declined to rule one out and some analysts (e.g. Barclays) have speculated about timing. Every merger number on Exit Velocity is a hypothetical you control.

### Barclays said ~0.7. Does that mean I'd get 0.7 SPCX shares per TSLA share?
No. The ~0.7 figure compares company values: Tesla's market capitalization divided by SpaceX's. What a shareholder receives is an exchange ratio — SPCX shares per TSLA share — which depends on share prices and share counts. At mid-October 2026 prices, simply matching value works out to roughly 2.3–2.5 SPCX per TSLA. Receiving 0.7 shares would be a large haircut, not a deal term anyone has proposed.

### How is the exchange ratio calculated?
At value parity, ratio = TSLA price ÷ SPCX price. With a premium p, ratio = TSLA price × (1 + p) ÷ SPCX price. From a market-cap ratio M, ratio = M × (SpaceX shares outstanding ÷ Tesla shares outstanding). Exit Velocity lets you enter any of the three.

### Would a stock-for-stock merger be taxable?
Many all-stock acquisitions are structured as tax-free reorganizations, in which case your cost basis carries over to the new shares and tax is due only when you sell. Deal structure decides this, so treat any after-tax number as an estimate and confirm with a tax professional.

### What tax rate does Reality Mode use?
23.8% on gains: the 20% top federal long-term capital-gains rate plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax. Many holders pay 0% or 15% federally, plus state tax. Pro's My Exit Plan adds bracket-aware federal and 50-state estimates on your actual lots.

### Where do prices come from?
You enter them. Licensed real-time data for public display is expensive, so the calculator works fully from the prices you type in. If a licensed data provider is configured, a 'Use latest' shortcut appears next to the price field.

### What do Plankton, Top 25%, Top 10% and Whale mean?
Fun community tiers by TSLA share count: under 100 shares is Plankton, 100–499 Top 25% Holder, 500–999 Top 10% Holder, and 1,000+ Whale. They are folklore, not statistics about the shareholder base.

### Is my data stored anywhere?
No. Your holdings live in your browser's local storage. Share cards include share counts and targets only — never your cost basis.

### Is this investment advice?
No. Exit Velocity is an educational calculator. It doesn't know your situation, makes no recommendations, and isn't affiliated with Tesla, Inc. or Space Exploration Technologies Corp.