Where the merger talks actually stand.
For TSLA holders. Only confirmed facts, each with a source and a date. Last checked Oct 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ET.
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
- Oct 20, 2026
Tesla and SpaceX have each formed a special committee of independent directors to discuss a possible combination, at the request of shareholders. Musk says he is a conflicted party and is not part of those discussions.
- Oct 20, 2026
No terms are agreed. In Musk's words: “the special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there's no guarantee that they will.”
- Oct 20, 2026
Shareholders get the final say. Musk said that on the Tesla side a deal would need a vote of 50% of all outstanding shares, not just of the shares voted.
- Oct 21, 2026
On Tesla's Q3 call Musk added nothing new: “With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday.” The Guardian reports Tesla said it would take no questions on the topic.
- Oct 19, 2026
There is no merger proposal on the ballot for Tesla's Dec 3, 2026 annual meeting. The proxy lists three items: director elections, the say-on-pay vote and auditor ratification.
- Oct 21, 2026
Neither company has filed a merger agreement or deal terms with the SEC. Latest filings: Tesla's Q3 results 8-K (Oct 21) and SpaceX's Q3 results 8-K (Oct 20), both earnings only (checked on EDGAR, Oct 21, 9:15 PM ET).
- Oct 20, 2026Reported, not confirmed
Reuters, citing one unnamed person familiar with the matter: talks began in recent weeks, could result in SpaceX acquiring Tesla, and Tesla has been working with an investment bank. Neither company has confirmed this.
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18,990,195 SPCX shares × $159.31 = $3.03B, spread over 3,949,547,394 TSLA shares. About 0.20% of the TSLA price.
- Shares held: 18,990,195 SPCX Class A as of May 1, 2026. SpaceX IPO prospectus (424B4), filed Jun 12
- Cross-check: Tesla's 10-Q carries the stake at $3,007M on Jun 30, 2026 after a $238M lack-of-marketability discount. $3,245M ÷ SPCX's Jun 30 close of $170.86 ≈ 18.99M shares, which matches the prospectus count. Tesla Q2 2026 10-Q, filed Jul 23
- SPCX price: Latest SPCX $159.31 (Oct 21 close). TSLA $386.47 (Oct 21 close). Quotes refresh about every minute.
- TSLA shares outstanding: 3,949,547,394 as of Jul 16, 2026. Tesla Q2 2026 10-Q cover page
- Check by hand: at the Oct 21, 2026 close of $159.31, the stake is $3.025B, or $0.766 per TSLA share. Nasdaq.com quote, cross-checked with Yahoo Finance chart data
- Tesla's Q3 update shows a $142M unrealized loss on the SpaceX stake for Q3 2026 (after a $1.005B gain in Q2). Tesla Q3 2026 update (8-K Ex. 99.1), Oct 21
- Tesla's 10-Q says customary IPO-related sales restrictions on the stake expire in December 2026. The $238M discount reflected separate regulatory restrictions due to expire in September 2026. Tesla Q2 2026 10-Q, filed Jul 23
Market value before tax and before any discount Tesla applies in its own accounts. Tesla has not disclosed a share count after May 1, 2026; the Q3 10-Q is not filed yet.
Enter a made-up premium or exchange ratio to see the arithmetic per TSLA share. For the full after-tax version with your own shares, use the merger calculator.
| Hypothetical premium | SPCX per TSLA | Value per TSLA share | 100 TSLA would become |
|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 2.183 | $347.82 | 218.3 SPCX |
| 0%(value parity) | 2.426 | $386.47 | 242.6 SPCX |
| +10% | 2.668 | $425.12 | 266.8 SPCX |
| +20% | 2.911 | $463.76 | 291.1 SPCX |
| +30% | 3.154 | $502.41 | 315.4 SPCX |
Exchange ratio = TSLA price × (1 + premium) ÷ SPCX price. Barclays' widely quoted ~0.7 is a market-cap ratio, not an exchange ratio (why).
Prices prefilled from: Latest SPCX $159.31 (Oct 21 close); TSLA $386.47 (Oct 21 close). Type your own to override.
Illustrative only. No terms have been agreed and none may ever be. This is arithmetic on numbers you enter: an all-stock swap at today's prices, ignoring cash components, taxes, fees, price moves and how Tesla's own SpaceX shares would be treated. It is not a forecast, a prediction of deal terms, or investment, tax or selling advice.
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Your own share count, multiple deal structures (exchange ratio and premium ranges), bull, base and bear cases, and updates as news breaks. Everything is illustrative, not advice.
- Feb 2, 2026
xAI Holdings (parent of xAI and X) becomes a subsidiary of SpaceX.
- Mar 12, 2026
Tesla completes its $2.00B investment, now SpaceX Class A common stock (agreed Jan 16 as xAI preferred stock).
- May 1, 2026
SpaceX's prospectus lists Tesla as owner of 18,990,195 Class A shares (under 1% after the IPO).
- Jun 2026
SpaceX IPO prices at $135.00 per share; prospectus filed Jun 12. Shares trade on Nasdaq as SPCX.
- Jun 30, 2026
Tesla marks the stake at $3,007M fair value and books a $1.00B Q2 gain.
- Mid-Oct 2026
Barclays suggests a deal could be announced before Tesla's December annual meeting (as reported by Reuters).
- Oct 19, 2026
Tesla files its proxy for a Dec 3 annual meeting. No merger item on the ballot.
- Oct 20, 2026
On SpaceX's Q3 call Musk discloses both special committees, says no terms are agreed and calls a combination “a good idea.”
- Oct 21, 2026
Tesla reports Q3. Musk declines to add anything on the merger (“tap dancing through a minefield”). The Q3 update shows a $142M unrealized loss on the SpaceX stake.
- Dec 3, 2026
Tesla annual meeting (scheduled). The ballot has no merger item.
- Dec 2026
IPO-related sales restrictions on Tesla's SpaceX shares expire.